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Ran out of Luck: A Rebuilding Story

This is going to be a very long post, detailing a full teardown and rebuild of a roster, caused by Andrew Luck's retirement. I'm mostly writing just to recount my first full rebuild I've ever done on a team and some lessons about managing a team that I learned on the route there.
In 2018, I started a new dynasty league with the intent to have quarterbacks the most valuable position and to have a longterm league that I will manage as commissioner. We chose 6 point passing TD, -4 point interceptions to really amplify the effects of good quarterbacking versus bad quarterbacking.
During the startup, I decided to go with a young roster, with the intent to build for the future, without aiming to be immediately competitive. As a note, we did our draft in April of 2018, just after the real NFL draft.
Here is my team immediately after the draft:
  1. QBs: Andrew Luck, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky
  2. RBs: Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Derrius Guice, Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson
  3. WRs: Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Corey Coleman, Kelvin Benjamin
  4. TEs: Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Vance McDonald
Overall it was an extremely young roster, with lots of bust potential. I decided early on that I was going to play for the future knowing that there were a few good classes of receivers coming so I went light on that position, preferring running backs.
2018 Season:
I made a single trade before the season started:
I give: Dalvin Cook, Mitchell Trubisky
I get: Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Mixon
This was at the time that JimmyG was getting hyped as he was coming off the end of the season heroics for the 49ers and I wanted a better QB2. The trade like everything else for my team went immediately south as JimmyG, Derrius Guice, Jay Ajayi all tore their ACLs during the season and were gone. Carson would get hurt later in the year too, and I ended up with the 1.04 overall pick as a result.
2019 Season:
  1. QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo, Andrew Luck (retired)
  2. RBs: Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice, Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson
  3. WRs: Mike Evans, N’Keal Harry, Sammy Watkins, Corey Coleman, Kelvin Benjamin
  4. TEs: Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Vance McDonald
In the 2019 draft I took N’Keal first over many other quality talents like Metcalf, Sanders etc. because I had created a big positional need for receivers during the startup. This kind of drafting can really force you into a hole, if you prioritize need over talent, like I did. Still at the beginning of this season, I expected to have a maturing team that would be a borderline average squad, maybe compete for a late playoff spot. However, the bell tolled for me and Andrew Luck retired. Overnight I went from a decent team in a 6/-4 league to a complete clown show. I had additionally traded Darnold away in a big move to acquire draft capital and DJ Moore in the offseason, so I was suddenly left with only JimmyG as my starting quarterback. It was at this moment that I knew a full rebuild was unavoidable, and I tore my roster down to the foundations.
2019 Trades:
  1. Pre-season
    1. I give: Sam Darnold, Chris Carson
    2. I get: DJ Moore, 2020 1st (became 1.11)
  2. Post-Luck Retirement Deals
    1. I give: Joe Mixon
    2. I get: Calvin Ridley, 2020 1st (became 1.09)

  1. I give: Calvin Ridley
  2. I get: 2020 1st (became 1.12)

  1. I give: Duke Johnson
  2. I get: Kareem Hunt

  1. I give: Kareem Hunt
  2. I get: 2020 1st (became 1.10)

  1. I give: Jay Ajayi
  2. I get: 2020 3rd (became 3.11)

  1. I give: Ty Montgomery
  2. I get: 2020 2nd (became 2.11)
I’m honestly just tearing down anything of value in hopes of landing the 1.01. The smaller trades are all selling players at peaks and buying at valleys, TyMont when Bell is looking iffy at the start of the year. Duke for Kareem when Hunt is suspended and Duke gets traded. Ajayi when he is getting puff pieces written about him, etc.
At this point, I’ve collected 5 1sts (including my own), and am in the process of a full on rebuild that is going well so far. Near the middle of the season I get offered this:
  1. I give: N’Keal Harry, 2020 1st (became 1.09, was from the team I’m dealing with)
  2. I get: Odell Beckham
Maybe not a popular trade, but I love Beckham and closed on this deal quickly. I now had a receiving core of Evans, OBJ and DJ Moore and felt good about that going forward. As 2019 closed out I had earned the 1.01 and had 3 other first round picks to play with, though they were the 1.10, 1.11, and 1.12.
2020 Roster:
  1. QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jarrett Stidham, Andrew Luck (retired)
  2. RBs: Derrius Guice
  3. WRs: Mike Evans, Odell Beckahm, DJ Moore, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Diontae Johnson, Sammy Watkins,
  4. TEs: Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Vance McDonald, Josh Oliver
As April is approaching and draft season is heating up, I’m offered a number of different trades to acquire the 1.01 from me, and I finally settle on one:
  1. Burrow
    1. I give: 2020 1.01
    2. I get: 1.04, 1.07, 2021 1st
At first glance, this is a terrible trade for me as I’m throwing away my shot at Burrow & Tua and in 6/-4 scoring you need good quarterbacks or you just can’t win. However, as you’ll see below the draft works out for me.
I also wind up with another offer to reacquire the 1.09:
  1. I give: 2.01, 2.11, 3.11
  2. I get: 1.09
I closed on this one and had a grand total of 6 1st round picks heading into draft day:
1.04, 1.07, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 1.12
2020 Draft:
  1. Joe Burrow
  2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  3. Jonathon Taylor
  4. Tua Tagovailoa
  5. JK Dobbins
  6. DeAndre Swift
  7. CeeDee Lamb
  8. Jerry Jeudy
  9. Cam Akers
  10. Henry Ruggs
  11. Justin Herbert
  12. Jalen Reagor
I end up getting lucky, as the 1.02 goes CEH, and 1.03 takes JT. Tua falls to me, then I just reap value with my later picks. I put 1.12 on the board and end up closing on Evan Engram for the pick straight up. At the end of the draft my roster looks like this:
  1. QBs: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jarrett Stidham, Andrew Luck (retired)
  2. RBs: Derrius Guice, Cameron Akers
  3. WRs: Mike Evans, Odell Beckahm, DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Sammy Watkins,
  4. TEs: Evan Engram, Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Vance McDonald, Josh Oliver
tl;dr: Don’t punt the startup draft. Don’t trade away your third QB in Superflex because you have “Luck for a decade”. Don’t punt an entire position group with plans to fix it in a future draft. Lots of lessons for me from this league and roster and hopefully a successful rebuild of a mostly broken roster.
submitted by RossGarner to DynastyFF

Single-Family Housing Starts and Permits Both Climb to Over One Million Units

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  • Housing starts declined 5.1 percent in August to 1.42 million annualized units, according to the Census Bureau. The decline was driven by multifamily starts, which fell 22.7 percent, a pullback from July’s robust increase. Multifamily permits also posted a double-digit decline. Single-family starts, however, rose 4.1 percent to 1.02 million, which represents a nearly full recovery to February’s 1.03 million annualized pace. Single-family permits rose to 1.04 million, breaking past a million units for the first time since 2007. On a year-to-date basis, total starts were 5.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

  • The Fed reemphasized its average 2 percent objective at its September meeting, but given stubbornly low inflation over the past decade, we remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the Fed’s shift in policy. The skepticism appeared to percolate even the FOMC as, in the September Economic Projections, members’ median projections for inflation do not reach 2 percent until 2023.

  • Slowing retail sales growth in August is further evidence that the strong economic recovery observed early this summer has likely tempered. The deceleration may be in part due to the expiration of the $600 weekly unemployment subsidy, which expired at the end of July. With the prospect of additional stimulus uncertain, we believe a pullback in consumer spending remains a key downside risk for the fourth quarter.

  • Single-family starts have almost completely recovered back to pre-pandemic levels and, given the robust pace of permits and record-high homebuilder sentiment, we expect will likely continue at a strong rate in the fourth quarter. While the increase in single-family starts was in line with our expectations, we believe upward revisions to the prior two months will likely mean yet another upward revision to our near-term starts forecast.
submitted by Altruistic_Camel to econmonitor

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