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[Event] Banking Reform in India

March 2028
Though the past decade has seen massive growth in the Indian economy, this growth has been inhibited by structural weaknesses in the Indian financial sector that make it difficult for firms and individuals to gain access to the liquid assets necessary for investment and expansion. As part of its program to grow the Indian economy (as well as part of its obligations under the many FTAs signed over the past decade, which have promised a loosening of investment barriers in India), the BJP-led NDA passed the Indian Banking Reform Act (2028) in March.
The Problem
India's banking sector is dominated by several large state-controlled banks. As of 2019, these banks controlled 70 percent of deposits and 50 percent of loans.
However, despite their size, these banks are plagued by several massive structural weaknesses. The banks are controlled by the Indian government, which has often vacillated on whether it believes they should be used as a tool for promoting public policy (such as serving under-served populations) or whether they should maximize profitability (as a publicly traded bank would). Over the past thirty or so years, this has led to the accrual of billions of dollars of "bad debts" (loans to debtors that are unable to effectively repay the loan). Several times from 2000 to 2020, this required the Indian government to intervene with liquid cash injections in order to keep the banks solvent. While the growing economy has helped to resolve some of these issues, the state-operated banks still control an overwhelming majority of the country's bad assets.
This has negative ramifications for many of the country's poorest residents. While the state-operated banks are ostensibly meant to improve the service provided to poor, rural Indians, restrictions imposed by the federal government to combat the poor capital ratios of some state banks have inhibited their ability to serve this mission. Specifically, in 2019, half of the 21 state-run banks in the country were unable to expand lending, as the Reserve Bank of India's Prompt Corrective Action Plan forced them to focus on improving their capital ratios. This, coupled with other factors, has led to poor penetration of state-controlled banks into rural areas: in 2019, some 22 percent of Indians above the age of 18, mostly poor and rural, were unbanked, limiting their participation in the larger Indian economy.
This has directly contributed to the rise of a massive shadow banking sector in India. In 2019, some 25 percent of loans were issued by the shadow banking sector--which ranges from high interest rate private lenders (think loan sharks) to large non-bank financial institutions (risk-pooling institutions and contractual savings institutions, mostly). Since these organizations are legally barred from taking deposits, they largely rely on more volatile financial services (such as money markets) to finance the credit lines they are extending. Since these lines of credit a much more volatile, this builds a larger amount of risk into the Indian financial sector: in 2018, the Indian government was forced to bail out Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services (IL&FS), a large infrastructure finance group in India, to prevent a runaway default of the Indian financial sector. In 2019, India's public and private sector banks had lent some 70b USD--about 40 percent of the banking sector's capital--to these shadow banks.
Corruption is also a massive issue in the Indian financial sector due to the lack of proper government oversight. In 18 months between 2018 and 2019, over 2.5b USD in banking fraud was discovered, including a 2b USD banking fraud case at the state-controlled Punjab National Bank. Historically, this had led to the forced retirement of several influential figures in the Indian financial sector, creating a lack of continuity in leadership that has harmed institutional memory.
In conclusion, the NDA identified XXXX primary issues that needed to be addressed to increase the security of the Indian financial sector.
1) India needs to improve the regulatory environment for banks (to combat corruption) and for shadow banks (to combat the entrance of non-bank financial institutions into the sector, thereby reducing the volatility of the Indian financial sector).
2) India needs to improve its ability to extend banking services to its unbanked population. Banking is a critical avenue for wealth accumulation, and is a near necessity for lifting populations out of poverty and into greater participation in the Indian economy.
3) India needs to improve its ability to offer credit to small borrowers, such as small businesses and farmers. Currently, restrictions on lending for the largest Indian banks have inhibited these populations from gaining access to credit, slowing down the growth of the Indian economy.
4) India needs to improve the ability of privately owned banks, including foreign financial institutions, to do business in India in order to improve the efficiency of the banking sector and to uphold treaty obligations made in several free trade agreements.
The Solution
The Indian Banking Reform Act (2028) hopes to combat some of these systemic issues in the Indian financial sector.
First, and perhaps most importantly, IBRA (2028) announced that the government would be selling off its controlling stake in several of the public sector banks in India, including the Bank of Maharashtra, the Bank of Baroda, and Canara Bank. This was accompanied by a general shift in the mission of the remaining state-controlled banks, with profitability now to take precedence over the public service part of their previous mission.
That is not to say that the public service function of the Indian banking sector has been eliminated entirely. IBRA also includes provisions that expand the Indian Post Payments Bank, a 100% government owned public sector bank that cooperates with the postal service to bring banking services to the door of every household in India. IBRA massively increased the budget of the IPPB, allowing it to expand services and hire new employees to help extend banking services to the rural communities of India.
IBRA also created two new public sector banks, the Agricultural Bank of India (ABI) and the Business Development Bank of India (BDBI). These banks, which are 100% government owned, are designed to provide specialized services, including low-interest loans, to the Indian agricultural sector and to small business owners in India, both of which have suffered under the current Indian banking regime. These banks will enjoy full interoperability of services with the IPPB, ensuring maximum penetration of the difficult lending sectors. These banks are intended to operate effectively at-cost, with the understanding that this will allow the larger national banks to shed some of their low-performing assets to help improve profitability, thereby expanding lending in other sectors. This will have the added benefit of increasing economic development outside of the major urban centers of India, as these new banks will provide credit services to communities that were previously unable to access them.
IBRA includes significant changes to the regulatory structure governing Indian banks, including a massive expansion to the oversight capabilities of the Reserve Bank of India (the premier financial regulatory body in India). Furthermore, the law introduces regulations that put an end to the shadow banking sector, requiring those institutions handing out loans to meet a certain set of minimum standards to do so legally (which will, over time, funnel individuals presently involved in the shadow banking sector back into legitimate channels).
Finally, IBRA eliminated the few remaining barriers to financial institutions located in countries with which India has a free trade agreement. This will allow major foreign financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of American, HSBC Holdings, and Barclays to operate within India within the existing boundaries of law. This added competition, coupled with the new mission provided to the existing state-controlled banks, should help spur increased competitiveness in the banking sector, improving outcomes for all Indians.
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